11522 Ponderosa

Piñon Hills, CA 92372

$489,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,657 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,615/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax + insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-937/mo
• Annual: $-11,242/yr
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.21%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $136,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $489k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-937 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (46.5% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (46.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $489k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.