11522 Ponderosa · Piñon Hills, CA 92372

$489,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2006 2.29 ac lot $184/sqft · 8% below area Est $532k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 11522 Ponderosa Road, located in the serene city of Pinon Hills! The home opens into a spacious great room, seamlessly connecting the living area, kitchen, and dining space—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The expansive kitchen is equipped with abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. A large laundry area adds even more convenience and storage options. On one side of the home, two bedrooms share a full bathroom. The family room and primary bedroom have a fireplace. On the opposite side, the private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a roomy en-suite bathroom. Home also has an automatic front gate. Step outside t

Key facts

• Expansive kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Large laundry area

Tags

• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• LARGE LAUNDRY AREA
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• AUTOMATIC FRONT GATE
• PANORAMIC VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Mountainous community setting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces (3 parking spaces total)
• Security: Automatic gate
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Front entry; Has a view
• Construction: No ADU; Public records used as year-built source
• Exterior features: House structure; Yard; Horse property; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with forced air central furnace; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level layout; Automatic gate; Bonus room; Family room; Fireplaces in the primary bedroom and family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home (individual room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $489k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-937 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (46.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (46.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $489k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,487 (46.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.21%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,801
• List price: $489,000
• Delta: -8.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11423 Desert Vw	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,468 (-7%)	3mo	$540,000	$219	66
11126 Arena Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,371 (-11%)	4mo	$520,000	$219	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $206,465
• Equity at exit: $440,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $654,545
• Equity at exit: $950,019

Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92372

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,813/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,801

Max offer price $323,512

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,250
• Closing costs: $14,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $489,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $515,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $515,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $515,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $515,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $515,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $515,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $515,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $515,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $515,000 Active 1323-char remark
15. 2026-03-19
    historical
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $525,000 Active
17. 2026-02-07
    price $525,000
18. 2026-02-06
    listed $575,000 Active
19. 2025-10-24
    listed $575,000 Active
20. 2012-07-03
    soldstatus $180,500
21. 2007-07-03
    historical
22. 2007-04-02
    price $449,500
23. 2007-03-14
    listed $469,500
24. 2005-09-23
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,813 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,716 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$903/yr (+$75/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥96°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,392
• − Property taxes: −$2,813
• − Insurance: −$2,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − Depreciation: −$14,225
• Taxable loss: −$20,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,924
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Piñon Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piñon Hills, CA
• City population: 4,854
• Population (ZIP): 4,854

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.25%
• Current HPI: 383.0737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+414.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $489,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $515,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $525,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $525,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $575,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $575,000 CRMLS
• 2012-07-03 Sold (MLS) $180,500 CRMLS
• 2007-07-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-04-02 Price Changed $449,500 CRMLS
• 2007-03-14 Listed $469,500 CRMLS
• 2005-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,813 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.