6 Head Dr

Fredericktown, MO 63645

$89,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1948 · Other · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,107/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $328/mo
• Annual: $3,941/yr
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.66%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#493 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Fredericktown R-I (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #164 of 324 in MO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericktown Elem. (411 students, 60% FRL); Fredericktown High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 588 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.8% in Fredericktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.