6 Head Dr · Fredericktown, MO 63645

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Other public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1948 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming two bedroom home with a detached garage/shop. Call us today to schedule your showing.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.0% in Fredericktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#493 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Fredericktown R-I (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #164 of 324 in MO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericktown Elem. (411 students, 60% FRL); Fredericktown High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 588 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.66%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,320
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $32,318
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63645

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $445/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-02
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-27
   price $89,900
4. 2026-02-14
   price $99,900
5. 2026-01-31
   price $104,900
6. 2026-01-09
   price $114,900
7. 2025-12-26
   price $119,900
8. 2025-12-10
   listed $129,900 Active
9. 2020-08-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 96.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$445
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$627
• After-tax cash flow: $3,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericktown R-I
• NCES district ID: 2912540
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,484
• Composite: 33.16/100
• National rank: #5550
• State rank: #164 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fredericktown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #19165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericktown, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,514

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,728 people
• By 2030: 12,838 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 12,913 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 12,744 · +0.1%
• By 2075: 12,073 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 10,940 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.1% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+58.2 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.52%
• Current HPI: 188.2207
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $114,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $445 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.