48 Poplar Dr

Tuscola, IL 61953

$84,000B+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $485/mo
• Annual: $5,824/yr
• Cap rate: 13.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.76%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $23,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#257 in IL, #4,735 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscola CUSD 301 (town): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #380 of 620 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.4% in Tuscola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.