48 Poplar Dr · Tuscola, IL 61953

$84,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 8,756 sqft lot Est $129k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't wait or this one will be gone! Located in Hillcrest Subdivision near beautiful Wimple Park. Updates include roof and bath remodels in 09, replacement windows '12, new flooring in kitchen, dining room, family room and two bedrooms '14, and countertop in 10, large deck added in 09, new siding, and paint inside. Appliances including washer and dryer '08 and refrigerator '14 stay. Backs up to big church lot so no neighbor behind.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Back deck
• 8,756 sq ft lot

Tags

• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BACK DECK
• BACKS UP TO A LARGE CHURCH LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels (2 stories)
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Private maintained road access; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedrooms and living spaces included)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.4% in Tuscola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#257 in IL, #4,735 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscola CUSD 301 (town): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #380 of 620 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $84,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.76%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,520
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Southland Cir	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,125 (+4%)	6mo	$163,000	$145	54
1019 S Eastview Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (-3%)	18mo	$80,000	$77	53
907 E Glenview Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (+13%)	10mo	$145,000	$119	45
708 E Ficklin St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-7%)	13mo	$104,900	$105	43
404 E Scott St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+9%)	11mo	$225,000	$191	34
1016 S Eastview Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	924 (-14%)	21mo	$87,900	$95	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $17,360
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $55,159
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61953

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,979/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $811

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 E Ficklin St Tuscola, IL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,425	$1.52	43d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 398-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $84,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,979
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $4,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $4,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscola CUSD 301
• NCES district ID: 1739600
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $50,982
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8748
• State rank: #380 of 620 in IL

Livability — Tuscola

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #4735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,439

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,209 people
• By 2030: 18,940 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 18,397 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 17,829 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 16,395 · -14.6%
• By 2100: 14,329 · -25.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.1% · R 72.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.3pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.74%
• Current HPI: 192.1209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $84,000 CIBR
• 2016-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-07 Listed $110,999 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-26 Sold (MLS) $106,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-11 Listed $111,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2011-08-19 Sold (MLS) $78,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-09 Listed $82,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-05 Sold (MLS) $77,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2008-05-27 Listed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,979 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.