1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
650 sqft ·
Built 1962
· Condo
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$940/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$302
Tax + insurance
−$96
HOA
−$270
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$197
Net cashflow
$75/mo
Annual
$903/yr
Cap rate
7.86%
Cash-on-cash
5.61%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.63%
Cash to close
$16,100
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($903/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($940 rent vs $58k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $57k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Robison Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 265 students, 76% FRL); Mansfeld Middle Magnet School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 60% FRL); Tucson Magnet High School (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #240 of 381 statewide, top 63%, 3,162 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 267 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— Dated and in need of updating.
Moderate: kitchen countertops
— Dated and in need of updating.
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— Dated and in need of updating.
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· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29