33799 Bayview Dr

New Baltimore, MI 48047

$182,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,323 sqft · Built 1978 · Condo · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$959
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$212
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-267/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $51,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $183k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-267/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (1.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $183k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $180k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in MI, #597 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 59% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $183k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in New Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.