16 High School Ave

Shelby, OH 44875

$169,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,287 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $532/mo
• Annual: $6,390/yr
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.43%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#301 in OH, #4,837 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: commute D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Shelby City (town): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #269 of 656 in OH (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #456 of 1,584 statewide, top 31%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Shelby Middle School (math 65% / reading 62%, grade B+, #228 of 654 statewide, top 35%, 454 students, 99% FRL); Shelby High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #243 of 781 statewide, top 33%, 499 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richland County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.