11215 Aspen Ave

Citrus City, TX 78574

$110,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 498 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $336/yr
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($336/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,366 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Evangelina Garza El (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Juan De Dios Salinas Middle (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 704 students, 99% FRL); Juarez-Lincoln H S (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,062 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 54% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 477 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — Weathered condition
• Major: flooring — Worn-out condition
• Major: interior walls — Painted walls with potential damage