11215 Aspen Ave · Citrus City, TX 78574

$110,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 498 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2010 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Financing Available!! 30% down, 9% interest rate with a 5-year balloon. Property features 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, sits on pier and beam, plus half acre lot! Property does require TLC.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($336/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,366 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Evangelina Garza El (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Juan De Dios Salinas Middle (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 704 students, 99% FRL); Juarez-Lincoln H S (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,062 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 54% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 477 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-15,985
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-11,392
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 477
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $66	+0% $28	+5% $-10	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $-15	+0% $28	+5% $71	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $56	base $28	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $110,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-03-05
   listed $110,000 Active 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Owner Financing Available!! 30% down, 9% interest rate with a 5-year balloon. Property features 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, sits on pier and beam, plus half acre lot! Property does require TLC.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires significant repairs and maintenance, including roof and siding replacement, painting, and flooring. It presents an opportunity for substantial value enhancement.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Weathered condition
• Major flooring — Worn-out condition
• Major interior walls — Painted walls with potential damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both roof replacement — Fixes potential leaks and improves property value
• Both siding replacement — Improves exterior appearance and durability
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances interior comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Weathered condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Painted walls with potential damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both roof replacement — Fixes potential leaks and improves property value ↑
• Both siding replacement — Improves exterior appearance and durability ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances interior comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Citrus City

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #23499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $110,000 MCALLENMLS