16921 US 550

Cedar Hill, NM 87410

$375,000D

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,651 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $347/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $375k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($347/yr) — positive. Per door: $14/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#214 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major: Kitchen countertop — The countertop is outdated and in poor condition.
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major: Flooring — The flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms is in poor condition.