16921 US 550 · Cedar Hill, NM 87410

$375,000

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,651 sqft · MultiFamily · 265 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

''Inca Gold'' offers a rare multi-family investment opportunity on 10.38 irrigated acres located on the site of the historic stagecoach stop and rail town of Inca, NM, just 19 minutes from Durango, CO and 13 minutes from Aztec, NM. This property features two existing residential units with the potential to add numerous RV or mobile home sites, creating a highly versatile income-producing asset. The first unit is a 1977 Schultz 14x66 with a 455-square-foot addition, featuring three bedrooms, two baths, two living areas, a kitchen with a gas stove, a primary suite with en suite bath, and two covered porches. The second unit is a 2000 Palm Harbor 16x76 with three bedrooms and two baths, ready for renovation or immediate rental. Both homes are fully connected to a domestic well, and propane is provided for free to the west home. Natural gas and community water taps are available at the property line, providing flexibility for additional units or expansion. A detached 1,800-square-foot garage and workshop with an 800-square-foot cellar offers additional storage or rental possibilities. The property also includes a metal shed and greenhouse with propane heaters, supporting year-round agricultural use or extra tenant amenities. The irrigated land, equipped with 10-inch piping, pumps, and sprinklers, is ideal for gardening, livestock, or other value-added uses. With ample space for RV or mobile home placement, open pastures, and established apricot and peach trees, this property presents a rare opportunity to expand beyond the existing two units and create a robust multi-family community. Its strategic location near highways, easy access to Durango and Aztec, and strong water infrastructure make this an ideal long-term investment for developers or entrepreneurs seeking both immediate income and future growth potential.

Key facts

• Irrigated land
• Irrigated acres
• Listed 264 days

Tags

• IRRIGATED ACRES
• EXISTING RESIDENTIAL UNITS
• RV OR MOBILE HOME SITES
• DETACHED GARAGE AND WORKSHOP
• METAL SHED AND GREENHOUSE
• IRRIGATED LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $375k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($347/yr) — positive. Per door: $14/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#214 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-58,876
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-48,696
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87410

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 94%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,316
Total (2 units)			$3,317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $375,000 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $389,000 1842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1842 chars)

    ''Inca Gold'' offers a rare multi-family investment opportunity on 10.38 irrigated acres located on the site of the historic stagecoach stop and rail town of Inca, NM, just 19 minutes from Durango, CO and 13 minutes from Aztec, NM. This property features two existing residential units with the potential to add numerous RV or mobile home sites, creating a highly versatile income-producing asset. The first unit is a 1977 Schultz 14x66 with a 455-square-foot addition, featuring three bedrooms, two baths, two living areas, a kitchen with a gas stove, a primary suite with en suite bath, and two covered porches. The second unit is a 2000 Palm Harbor 16x76 with three bedrooms and two baths, ready for renovation or immediate rental. Both homes are fully connected to a domestic well, and propane is provided for free to the west home. Natural gas and community water taps are available at the property line, providing flexibility for additional units or expansion. A detached 1,800-square-foot garage and workshop with an 800-square-foot cellar offers additional storage or rental possibilities. The property also includes a metal shed and greenhouse with propane heaters, supporting year-round agricultural use or extra tenant amenities. The irrigated land, equipped with 10-inch piping, pumps, and sprinklers, is ideal for gardening, livestock, or other value-added uses. With ample space for RV or mobile home placement, open pastures, and established apricot and peach trees, this property presents a rare opportunity to expand beyond the existing two units and create a robust multi-family community. Its strategic location near highways, easy access to Durango and Aztec, and strong water infrastructure make this an ideal long-term investment for developers or entrepreneurs seeking both immediate income and future growth potential.

17. 2025-11-01
    price $399,000 1842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1842 chars)

    ''Inca Gold'' offers a rare multi-family investment opportunity on 10.38 irrigated acres located on the site of the historic stagecoach stop and rail town of Inca, NM, just 19 minutes from Durango, CO and 13 minutes from Aztec, NM. This property features two existing residential units with the potential to add numerous RV or mobile home sites, creating a highly versatile income-producing asset. The first unit is a 1977 Schultz 14x66 with a 455-square-foot addition, featuring three bedrooms, two baths, two living areas, a kitchen with a gas stove, a primary suite with en suite bath, and two covered porches. The second unit is a 2000 Palm Harbor 16x76 with three bedrooms and two baths, ready for renovation or immediate rental. Both homes are fully connected to a domestic well, and propane is provided for free to the west home. Natural gas and community water taps are available at the property line, providing flexibility for additional units or expansion. A detached 1,800-square-foot garage and workshop with an 800-square-foot cellar offers additional storage or rental possibilities. The property also includes a metal shed and greenhouse with propane heaters, supporting year-round agricultural use or extra tenant amenities. The irrigated land, equipped with 10-inch piping, pumps, and sprinklers, is ideal for gardening, livestock, or other value-added uses. With ample space for RV or mobile home placement, open pastures, and established apricot and peach trees, this property presents a rare opportunity to expand beyond the existing two units and create a robust multi-family community. Its strategic location near highways, easy access to Durango and Aztec, and strong water infrastructure make this an ideal long-term investment for developers or entrepreneurs seeking both immediate income and future growth potential.

18. 2025-09-27
    listed $432,000 Active 1842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1842 chars)

    ''Inca Gold'' offers a rare multi-family investment opportunity on 10.38 irrigated acres located on the site of the historic stagecoach stop and rail town of Inca, NM, just 19 minutes from Durango, CO and 13 minutes from Aztec, NM. This property features two existing residential units with the potential to add numerous RV or mobile home sites, creating a highly versatile income-producing asset. The first unit is a 1977 Schultz 14x66 with a 455-square-foot addition, featuring three bedrooms, two baths, two living areas, a kitchen with a gas stove, a primary suite with en suite bath, and two covered porches. The second unit is a 2000 Palm Harbor 16x76 with three bedrooms and two baths, ready for renovation or immediate rental. Both homes are fully connected to a domestic well, and propane is provided for free to the west home. Natural gas and community water taps are available at the property line, providing flexibility for additional units or expansion. A detached 1,800-square-foot garage and workshop with an 800-square-foot cellar offers additional storage or rental possibilities. The property also includes a metal shed and greenhouse with propane heaters, supporting year-round agricultural use or extra tenant amenities. The irrigated land, equipped with 10-inch piping, pumps, and sprinklers, is ideal for gardening, livestock, or other value-added uses. With ample space for RV or mobile home placement, open pastures, and established apricot and peach trees, this property presents a rare opportunity to expand beyond the existing two units and create a robust multi-family community. Its strategic location near highways, easy access to Durango and Aztec, and strong water infrastructure make this an ideal long-term investment for developers or entrepreneurs seeking both immediate income and future growth potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,184
• − Management: −$3,184
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$5,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $1,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. The kitchen and bathrooms need significant updates, and the flooring and landscaping need attention. The property has a good foundation and structure, but the exterior siding and windows are in fair condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Kitchen countertop — The countertop is outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Flooring — The flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms is in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Replace outdated kitchen cabinets and countertop — Updating the kitchen will make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathrooms will make the property more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Replace flooring — Replacing the flooring will improve the overall condition of the property and make it more appealing to both buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will make the property more attractive and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are outdated and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen countertop · The countertop is outdated and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are outdated and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · The flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms is in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Replace outdated kitchen cabinets and countertop — Updating the kitchen will make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathrooms will make the property more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Replacing the flooring will improve the overall condition of the property and make it more appealing to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will make the property more attractive and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — Cedar Hill

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #23582

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Hill, NM
• Population (ZIP): 14,372

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 12% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.31%
• Current HPI: 156.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $389,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $399,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $432,000 SJCMLS