151 S 3rd Ave

Oakdale, CA 95361

$300,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,264 sqft · Built 1883 · Other · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-314/mo
• Annual: $-3,765/yr
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#412 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Oakdale Joint Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #256 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Elementary (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #905 of 1,571 statewide, top 58%, 615 students, 52% FRL); Oakdale Junior High (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 756 students, 40% FRL); Oakdale High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #234 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 1,644 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $260k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Oakdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.