30 11th St

Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$279,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,070/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $4/mo
• Annual: $43/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($43/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (26.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $207k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Colonial Beach Public School District (town): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #82 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Colonial Beach Elementary (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C, #684 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 360 students, 80% FRL); Colonial Beach High (math 34% / reading 95%, grade B, #212 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 214 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 52% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $280k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Colonial Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.