30 11th St · Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$279,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1980 5,000 sqft lot Est $290k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR A GREAT STARTER HOME, GET-A-WAY OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY THATS ONLY 1/2 BLOCK FROM THE POTOMAC RIVER ? WELL THIS IS IT. 2 BEDROOM, 1.5 BATH RAMBLER WITH A LOT OF POTENETIAL . LOCATION IS GREAT AND PRICED TO SELL. . DON'T DELAY CHECK THIS ONE OUT TODAY.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Cozy kitchen
• Firepit under trees

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• COZY KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE BACK DECK
• AMPLE YARD SPACE
• FIREPIT UNDER TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached single-story home; One level (single story)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Permanent foundation; Above-grade structure
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Water view (Potomac River); Water-oriented property

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Ductless/mini-split cooling; Window air conditioning units; Electric heating and cooling fuel
• Interior features: Attic; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Entry-level bedroom; Combination kitchen/dining
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($43/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Colonial Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Colonial Beach Public School District (town): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #82 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Colonial Beach Elementary (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C, #684 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 360 students, 80% FRL); Colonial Beach High (math 34% / reading 95%, grade B, #212 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 214 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 52% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $280k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $206,992 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 11th St	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+6%)	7mo	$150,000	$142	77
114 5th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	975 (-2%)	6mo	$294,000	$302	74
150 5th	0.34mi	3/1.0	981 (-2%)	15mo	$290,000	$296	67
247 12th St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	20mo	$295,000	$295	67
119 1st St	0.52mi	3/1.0	962 (-4%)	9mo	$279,000	$290	60
1115 Mckinney Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,022 (+2%)	7mo	$289,999	$284	59
227 7th St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-12%)	2mo	$310,000	$351	58
309 2nd St	0.58mi	3/1.0	928 (-7%)	12mo	$269,500	$290	49
608 Kintz St	0.69mi	3/1.0	920 (-8%)	5mo	$277,500	$302	48
126 5th St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	20mo	$310,000	$277	47
418 Lincoln Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,084 (+8%)	13mo	$314,500	$290	41
517 Billingsley	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+14%)	8mo	$172,800	$151	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,283
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,768
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22443

• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,065

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 12th St Colonial Beach, VA	2.0	1.5	856	$1,050	$1.23	1d	1	0.43mi
3214 Riverview Dr Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1248	$2,150	$1.72	12d	1	0.72mi
520 Jackson St Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,900	$2.42	11d	1	0.73mi
715 Washington Ave Colonial Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	12d	1	0.75mi
217 Mimosa Ave Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,895	$1.79	23d	1	0.80mi
119 Cedar Ave Colonial Beach, VA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,600	$1.92	12d	1	0.86mi
125 Lynnhaven Ct Colonial Beach, VA	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,950	$1.68	14d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $279,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $279,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,729/yr (+$144/mo · 305.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colonial Beach Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100930
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,397
• Composite: 46.38/100
• National rank: #2459
• State rank: #82 of 131 in VA

Livability — Colonial Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #19615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colonial Beach, VA
• County: Westmoreland County · 10,011 people
• City population: 10,011
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,011
• Household income: $64,810
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 126.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 152.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+438.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) $99,999 MRIS
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) $99,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $99,999 Public Records
• 2015-09-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-08-02 Price Changed $109,999 MRIS
• 2015-05-20 Listed $117,500 MRIS
• 2015-05-20 Listed $109,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-11-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-07-17 Relisted — MRIS
• 2014-07-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-05-16 Relisted — MRIS
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-05-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-06-18 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-06-18 Listed $134,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-03-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-03-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-09-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2012-09-16 Listed $139,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-12-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-06-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2001-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $567 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.