22 Hinden Homes Tra Ct

Swartzville, PA 17517

$89,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,013/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $75k (16.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $75k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#554 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cocalico SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Adamstown El Sch (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 403 students, 41% FRL); Cocalico Ms (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D+, #172 of 512 statewide, top 35%, 682 students, 43% FRL); Cocalico Shs (math 78% / reading 24%, grade D+, #121 of 437 statewide, top 28%, 1,008 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 22% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.