22 Hinden Homes Tra Ct · Swartzville, PA 17517

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1995 $450/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Hinden Homes 55+ Community in the Denver/Reamstown area. A newly renovated 1995 Commodore 14x72 has an Eat-in Kitchen, Sizable LR, A Bedroom & Bath on either end. New flooring, propane furnace & CA. As A very appealing new 10 x 20 covered front Deck. 10×12 Shed. This home has a pleasant decor & is in move-in condition in a quiet park.

Key facts

• 10x12 shed
• Move-in condition
• Covered front deck

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• 10X12 SHED
• MOVE-IN CONDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Ground rent listed as an annual income/expense item
• HOA & community: HOA fee $20 monthly; Ground rent $450 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Senior community (55+)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Storm windows
• Exterior features: Level lot; Deck(s); Covered porch/roofed outdoor living area; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (owned) heating fuel; Central air (electric); 100 Amp electrical service; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown moldings; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#554 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cocalico SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Adamstown El Sch (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 403 students, 41% FRL); Cocalico Ms (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D+, #172 of 512 statewide, top 35%, 682 students, 43% FRL); Cocalico Shs (math 78% / reading 24%, grade D+, #121 of 437 statewide, top 28%, 1,008 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 22% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.09%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,170
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $14,792
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17517

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $216	+0% $191	+5% $165	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $131	+0% $191	+5% $250	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $213	base $191	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $89,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 353-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $89,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 77.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $1,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocalico SD
• NCES district ID: 4206270
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 46.09/100
• National rank: #2512
• State rank: #130 of 539 in PA

Livability — Swartzville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #554
• US rank: #5170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swartzville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,045

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.05%
• Current HPI: 262.8646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $556 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.