11873 Shady Ave

Conneaut Lakeshore, PA 16316

$137,500C+

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,197/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $38,500

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#932 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conneaut Lake-Sadsbury El Sch (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 303 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Lake Ms (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #272 of 512 statewide, top 53%, 298 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Area Senior High (math 95% / reading 24%, grade C+, #79 of 437 statewide, top 18%, 579 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 44% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.2% in Conneaut Lakeshore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.