11873 Shady Ave · Conneaut Lakeshore, PA 16316

$137,500

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

$115/sqft · 40% below area Est $231k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step back in time and experience the charm of “Shamrock, ” a beloved old-school cottage nestled at beautiful Conneaut Lake. Full of character and memories, this classic getaway offers the simplicity and warmth that lake living is all about. Inside, you’ll find two bedrooms on the first floor and three additional bedrooms upstairs—plenty of space for family and guests. A blend of ceramic tile and hardwood flooring adds to the cottage’s timeless appeal, while the screened front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening chats, or simply enjoying the laid-back pace of lake life. Being offered furnished, this home is ready for you to move in and start making memories right away. Located just a half block from Shady Beach, once you join, you’ll love the easy access to swimming, sunbathing, and everything that makes summers at the lake unforgettable. “Shamrock” is more than a home—it’s a piece of Conneaut Lake history waiting for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Garage
• Listed 16 days

Tags

• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• EASY ACCESS TO SWIMMING
• HALF BLOCK FROM SHADY BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.2% in Conneaut Lakeshore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#932 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $138k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,317 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,069
• List price: $137,500
• Delta: -40.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11873 Shady Ave	0.00mi	5/1.5	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$130,000	$108	100
12055 Oakmont Dr	0.43mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,208 (+1%)	13mo	$131,400	$109	63
11135 Center St E	0.14mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,356 (+13%)	6mo	$180,000	$133	62
11809 Shady Ave	0.07mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	9mo	$128,000	$123	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $81,199
• Equity at exit: $123,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $234,033
• Equity at exit: $267,132

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16316

• Home prices YoY: 21.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $139	+0% $100	+5% $61	+10% $22
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $52	+0% $100	+5% $147	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $135	base $100	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Step back in time and experience the charm of “Shamrock, ” a beloved old-school cottage nestled at beautiful Conneaut Lake. Full of character and memories, this classic getaway offers the simplicity and warmth that lake living is all about. Inside, you’ll find two bedrooms on the first floor and three additional bedrooms upstairs—plenty of space for family and guests. A blend of ceramic tile and hardwood flooring adds to the cottage’s timeless appeal, while the screened front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening chats, or simply enjoying the laid-back pace of lake life. Being offered furnished, this home is ready for you to move in and start making memories right away. Located just a half block from Shady Beach, once you join, you’ll love the easy access to swimming, sunbathing, and everything that makes summers at the lake unforgettable. “Shamrock” is more than a home—it’s a piece of Conneaut Lake history waiting for its next chapter.

2. 2026-05-02
   status Active 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Step back in time and experience the charm of “Shamrock, ” a beloved old-school cottage nestled at beautiful Conneaut Lake. Full of character and memories, this classic getaway offers the simplicity and warmth that lake living is all about. Inside, you’ll find two bedrooms on the first floor and three additional bedrooms upstairs—plenty of space for family and guests. A blend of ceramic tile and hardwood flooring adds to the cottage’s timeless appeal, while the screened front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening chats, or simply enjoying the laid-back pace of lake life. Being offered furnished, this home is ready for you to move in and start making memories right away. Located just a half block from Shady Beach, once you join, you’ll love the easy access to swimming, sunbathing, and everything that makes summers at the lake unforgettable. “Shamrock” is more than a home—it’s a piece of Conneaut Lake history waiting for its next chapter.

3. 2026-04-26
   status Pending 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Step back in time and experience the charm of “Shamrock, ” a beloved old-school cottage nestled at beautiful Conneaut Lake. Full of character and memories, this classic getaway offers the simplicity and warmth that lake living is all about. Inside, you’ll find two bedrooms on the first floor and three additional bedrooms upstairs—plenty of space for family and guests. A blend of ceramic tile and hardwood flooring adds to the cottage’s timeless appeal, while the screened front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening chats, or simply enjoying the laid-back pace of lake life. Being offered furnished, this home is ready for you to move in and start making memories right away. Located just a half block from Shady Beach, once you join, you’ll love the easy access to swimming, sunbathing, and everything that makes summers at the lake unforgettable. “Shamrock” is more than a home—it’s a piece of Conneaut Lake history waiting for its next chapter.

4. 2026-04-17
   listed $137,500 Active 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Step back in time and experience the charm of “Shamrock, ” a beloved old-school cottage nestled at beautiful Conneaut Lake. Full of character and memories, this classic getaway offers the simplicity and warmth that lake living is all about. Inside, you’ll find two bedrooms on the first floor and three additional bedrooms upstairs—plenty of space for family and guests. A blend of ceramic tile and hardwood flooring adds to the cottage’s timeless appeal, while the screened front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening chats, or simply enjoying the laid-back pace of lake life. Being offered furnished, this home is ready for you to move in and start making memories right away. Located just a half block from Shady Beach, once you join, you’ll love the easy access to swimming, sunbathing, and everything that makes summers at the lake unforgettable. “Shamrock” is more than a home—it’s a piece of Conneaut Lake history waiting for its next chapter.

5. 2019-08-22
   soldstatus $89,000 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautifully kept 5 bedroom summer cottage in Shady Beach Area with new flooring. 1 block to Lake/Beach. Survey available.

6. 2019-08-22
   soldstatus $89,000

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautifully kept 5 bedroom summer cottage in Shady Beach Area with new flooring. 1 block to Lake/Beach. Survey available.

7. 2019-07-27
   listed $89,900 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Beautifully kept 5 bedroom summer cottage in Shady Beach Area with new flooring. 1 block to Lake/Beach. Survey available.

8. 2016-09-07
   soldstatus $70,000
9. 2016-09-02
   soldstatus $70,000
10. 2016-09-02
    soldstatus $70,000
11. 2016-05-27
    listed $79,000
12. 2016-05-27
    listed $84,000
13. 2015-03-30
    soldstatus $60,000
14. 2015-03-27
    soldstatus $60,000
15. 2014-07-13
    listed $74,900
16. 2014-07-10
    historical
17. 2013-08-19
    historical
18. 2013-07-11
    listed $74,900
19. 2012-08-20
    listed $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 75.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$271
• After-tax cash flow: $1,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conneaut Lakeshore

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #932
• US rank: #10138

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conneaut Lakeshore, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,688

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.22%
• Current HPI: 334.4533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+59.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-04-26 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $137,500 GEBOR
• 2019-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-22 Sold (MLS) $89,000 GEBOR
• 2019-07-27 Listed $89,900 GEBOR
• 2016-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-02 Sold (MLS) $70,000 West Penn MLS
• 2016-09-02 Sold (MLS) $70,000 GEBOR
• 2016-05-27 Listed $84,000 West Penn MLS
• 2016-05-27 Listed $79,000 GEBOR
• 2015-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 West Penn MLS
• 2014-07-13 Listed $74,900 West Penn MLS
• 2014-07-10 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2013-08-19 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2013-07-11 Listed $74,900 West Penn MLS
• 2012-08-20 Listed $86,500 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $868 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.