11205 Kensington Pl

Fredericksburg, VA 22407

$289,900D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,179 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,062/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-277/mo
• Annual: $-3,323/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Battlefield Elementary (math 66% / reading 69%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 681 students, 68% FRL); Battlefield Middle (math 37% / reading 64%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 791 students, 66% FRL); Chancellor High (math 48% / reading 84%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,397 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 30% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $290k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.