11205 Kensington Pl · Fredericksburg, VA 22407

$289,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,179 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1986 3,049 sqft lot $246/sqft · 21% below area Est $367k · 21% under $120/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

Key facts

• $120 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Battlefield Elementary (math 66% / reading 69%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 681 students, 68% FRL); Battlefield Middle (math 37% / reading 64%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 791 students, 66% FRL); Chancellor High (math 48% / reading 84%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,397 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 30% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $290k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,217 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,656
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -20.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11210 Old Leavells Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,196 (+1%)	6mo	$395,000	$330	60
11200 Trisler Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (-4%)	4mo	$405,000	$359	59
11206 Old Leavells Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+4%)	7mo	$360,000	$293	58
5903 Griffith Way	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,128 (-4%)	6mo	$351,000	$311	54
6004 Cathedral Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (-5%)	16mo	$320,000	$286	49
5505 Peters Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-7%)	1mo	$325,000	$295	47
11015 Abbey Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-5%)	7mo	$369,000	$329	47
11224 Old Leavells Rd	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (-7%)	10mo	$345,000	$314	45
7008 Battlefield Green Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,192 (+1%)	14mo	$385,000	$323	45
5507 Peters Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (+4%)	11mo	$372,000	$304	42
5404 Leavells Crossing Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+11%)	3mo	$385,000	$293	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-68,110
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-95,891
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22407

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,413

Max offer price $240,983

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-195	+0% $-277	+5% $-359	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-358	+0% $-277	+5% $-195	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-203	base $-277	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11205 Kensington Pl Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1179	$2,000	$1.70	13d	1	0.02mi
11185 Kensington Pl Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1348	$2,145	$1.59	0d	1	0.06mi
11225 Salem Village Dr Unit End unit Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1179	$1,950	$1.65	45d	1	0.20mi
11132 Sunburst Ln Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,055	$2.16	0d	15	0.27mi
11001 Westminster Ct Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,245	$2.03	0d	1	0.73mi
6010 Massaponax Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1125	$2,495	$2.22	20d	1	0.83mi
11707 Collinwood Ct Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,350	$1.65	22d	1	0.86mi
11211 Surry Woods Ct Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.0	996	$2,300	$2.31	45d	1	0.97mi
5516 Bounds St Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,150	$1.85	26d	1	1.03mi
5715 Castlebridge Rd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1212	$1,682	$1.39	4d	1	1.15mi
10502 Rising Ridge Rd Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,843	$2.29	0d	12	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $289,900 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

3. 2026-04-13
   status Active 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

4. 2026-04-12
   historical Active Under Contract 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

5. 2026-04-08
   listed $294,900 Active 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

6. 2026-02-24
   historical $294,900 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   Great Opportunity! Charming end-unit townhome ideally located just minutes from Downtown Fredericksburg, I-95, shopping, and dining. Move-in ready and perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor! This well-maintained home features a cozy fireplace, private patio/deck, fenced rear yard, and a storage shed for added convenience. Enjoy a fantastic location with easy commuter access and everyday amenities nearby. Some photos have been virtually staged to illustrate the home’s potential. Furnishings and décor shown are for visual representation only.

7. 2020-04-30
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   What an amazing investment or first time home buyer property! Clean end unit, patio/deck, shed, fenced yard, and fireplace! Super location for commuter options. Time to buy it now! TENANT OCCUPIED, VIRTUAL SHOWINGS ONLY. CALL LISTING AGENT

8. 2020-04-18
   status Pending 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   What an amazing investment or first time home buyer property! Clean end unit, patio/deck, shed, fenced yard, and fireplace! Super location for commuter options. Time to buy it now! TENANT OCCUPIED, VIRTUAL SHOWINGS ONLY. CALL LISTING AGENT

9. 2020-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   What an amazing investment or first time home buyer property! Clean end unit, patio/deck, shed, fenced yard, and fireplace! Super location for commuter options. Time to buy it now! TENANT OCCUPIED, VIRTUAL SHOWINGS ONLY. CALL LISTING AGENT

10. 2020-03-22
    status Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    What an amazing investment or first time home buyer property! Clean end unit, patio/deck, shed, fenced yard, and fireplace! Super location for commuter options. Time to buy it now! TENANT OCCUPIED, VIRTUAL SHOWINGS ONLY. CALL LISTING AGENT

11. 2020-03-21
    historical 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    What an amazing investment or first time home buyer property! Clean end unit, patio/deck, shed, fenced yard, and fireplace! Super location for commuter options. Time to buy it now! TENANT OCCUPIED, VIRTUAL SHOWINGS ONLY. CALL LISTING AGENT

12. 2020-03-21
    listed $185,000 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    What an amazing investment or first time home buyer property! Clean end unit, patio/deck, shed, fenced yard, and fireplace! Super location for commuter options. Time to buy it now! TENANT OCCUPIED, VIRTUAL SHOWINGS ONLY. CALL LISTING AGENT

13. 2011-09-01
    soldstatus $110,000
14. 2011-08-23
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
15. 2011-08-23
    soldstatus $110,000
16. 2011-07-25
    status Contract
17. 2011-07-25
    historical
18. 2011-07-23
    listed $115,000 Active
19. 2011-07-23
    listed $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$8,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 65,425
• Household income: $111,129
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.22%
• Current HPI: 265.7804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+152.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $294,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Coming Soon $294,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-01 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-22 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-21 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-23 Sold (MLS) $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-08-23 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MRIS
• 2011-07-25 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-07-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-23 Listed $115,000 MRIS
• 2011-07-23 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,740 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.