19475 N Grayhawk Dr #2081

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$529,500D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,777
• Tax + insurance: −$580
• HOA: −$549
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-1,479/mo
• Annual: $-17,744/yr
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.98%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $148,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $530k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (42.0% below list).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $530k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?