19475 N Grayhawk Dr #2081 · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$529,500

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Condo public records · 159 Days on market

Built 2003 $415/sqft · 9% below area Est $609k · 13% under $549/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Tesoro at Grayhawk, one of Scottsdale's most sought after gated communities. This lovely, updated 2 bedroom/2 bath prime end-unit residence features an open floor plan, luxury wood-style floors, spacious great room with gas fireplace, dining area & balcony. Primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sink vanity & updated shower; and private guest suite offers an open balcony plus walk-in closet. Enjoy abundant cabinetry in the kitchen plus a breakfast bar, pantry & interior laundry room. Tesoro's resort style amenities--just steps away--include clubhouse, fitness center, gorgeous heated pool, two heated spas, lush landscaping & waterfall. HOA dues include water, sewer & trash. Close to Grayhawk Golf courses, top rated schools, abundant shopping, dining & hiking and Loop 101.

Key facts

• End unit townhome
• Gas fireplace
• Two decks

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOME
• GAS FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK IN CLOSET
• TWO DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (42.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $530k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,285 (49.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.98%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $608,935
• List price: $529,500
• Delta: -13.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $52,009
• Equity at exit: $320,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $239,950
• Equity at exit: $571,618

Cash invested: $148,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,777
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,846/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$549
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-1,479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,944

Max offer price $268,285

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,375
• Closing costs: $15,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19475 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2155	$3,195	$1.48	43d	5	0.01mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Unit 1545664P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1313	$2,159	$1.64	13d	1	0.40mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1814	$3,800	$2.09	43d	4	0.43mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$3,250	$1.68	21d	9	0.45mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$3,300	$1.71	24d	8	0.45mi
20704 N 90th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1849	$3,900	$2.11	7d	4	0.59mi
8941 E Maple Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1517	$4,375	$2.88	43d	1	0.64mi
19079 N 90th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1568	$2,750	$1.75	20d	1	0.66mi
20801 N 90th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1437	$2,595	$1.81	1d	4	0.70mi
20801 N 90th Pl Unit 01 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$6,450	$4.09	43d	1	0.70mi
9116 E Siesta Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	10d	1	0.79mi
20802 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	2030	$3,870	$1.91	43d	4	0.88mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	4d	17	1.13mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	19d	15	1.13mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1202	$3,925	$3.26	43d	5	1.13mi
18245 N Pima Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,229	$2.31	4d	13	1.17mi
7729 E Tailspin Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$3,400	$2.08	7d	1	1.27mi
20121 N 76th St #2003 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,795	$2.11	2d	1	1.28mi
20121 N 76th St #2043 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1854	$3,550	$1.91	43d	1	1.28mi
19777 N 76th St Unit 1546393P Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,109	$2.35	7d	1	1.28mi
7789 E Journey Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$4,700	$2.88	43d	1	1.29mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1293	$3,250	$2.51	43d	9	1.34mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$1,995	$1.51	2d	16	1.34mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	10d	19	1.34mi
7395 E Legacy Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1098	$4,464	$4.07	1d	67	1.37mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	4d	14	1.42mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$3,500	$2.14	43d	7	1.42mi
8122 E Theresa Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,395	$1.83	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $549 · $6,588/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashgaslandscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,500 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,500 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,500 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,500 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,500 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,500 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,500 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,500 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $529,500 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $529,500 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $529,500 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,500 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,500 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,500 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $529,500 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Welcome to Tesoro at Grayhawk, one of Scottsdale's most sought after gated communities. This lovely, updated 2 bedroom/2 bath prime end-unit residence features an open floor plan, luxury wood-style floors, spacious great room with gas fireplace, dining area & balcony. Primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sink vanity & updated shower; and private guest suite offers an open balcony plus walk-in closet. Enjoy abundant cabinetry in the kitchen plus a breakfast bar, pantry & interior laundry room. Tesoro's resort style amenities--just steps away--include clubhouse, fitness center, gorgeous heated pool, two heated spas, lush landscaping & waterfall. HOA dues include water, sewer & trash. Close to Grayhawk Golf courses, top rated schools, abundant shopping, dining & hiking and Loop 101.

16. 2026-02-12
    price $539,950 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Welcome to Tesoro at Grayhawk, one of Scottsdale's most sought after gated communities. This lovely, updated 2 bedroom/2 bath prime end-unit residence features an open floor plan, luxury wood-style floors, spacious great room with gas fireplace, dining area & balcony. Primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sink vanity & updated shower; and private guest suite offers an open balcony plus walk-in closet. Enjoy abundant cabinetry in the kitchen plus a breakfast bar, pantry & interior laundry room. Tesoro's resort style amenities--just steps away--include clubhouse, fitness center, gorgeous heated pool, two heated spas, lush landscaping & waterfall. HOA dues include water, sewer & trash. Close to Grayhawk Golf courses, top rated schools, abundant shopping, dining & hiking and Loop 101.

17. 2026-01-10
    listed $545,500 Active 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Welcome to Tesoro at Grayhawk, one of Scottsdale's most sought after gated communities. This lovely, updated 2 bedroom/2 bath prime end-unit residence features an open floor plan, luxury wood-style floors, spacious great room with gas fireplace, dining area & balcony. Primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sink vanity & updated shower; and private guest suite offers an open balcony plus walk-in closet. Enjoy abundant cabinetry in the kitchen plus a breakfast bar, pantry & interior laundry room. Tesoro's resort style amenities--just steps away--include clubhouse, fitness center, gorgeous heated pool, two heated spas, lush landscaping & waterfall. HOA dues include water, sewer & trash. Close to Grayhawk Golf courses, top rated schools, abundant shopping, dining & hiking and Loop 101.

18. 2025-10-01
    historical $2,475
19. 2025-09-04
    price $2,475
20. 2025-07-01
    listed $2,575
21. 2024-06-18
    historical $2,600
22. 2024-05-30
    price $2,600
23. 2024-05-09
    price $2,750
24. 2024-03-04
    listed $2,900
25. 2015-04-28
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Resort style life from this great 2 bedroom/2 bathroom condo, unit has attached two car garage, no one above or below, great room floor plan with gas fireplace, balcony off living area and guest bedroom, walk in closets to both bedrooms, gated community with heated pool/spa, fitness center. Excellent location with easy access to the 101 freeway, shops, restaurants, the perfect lock and leave!

26. 2015-04-28
    soldstatus $255,000

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Resort style life from this great 2 bedroom/2 bathroom condo, unit has attached two car garage, no one above or below, great room floor plan with gas fireplace, balcony off living area and guest bedroom, walk in closets to both bedrooms, gated community with heated pool/spa, fitness center. Excellent location with easy access to the 101 freeway, shops, restaurants, the perfect lock and leave!

27. 2015-03-17
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Resort style life from this great 2 bedroom/2 bathroom condo, unit has attached two car garage, no one above or below, great room floor plan with gas fireplace, balcony off living area and guest bedroom, walk in closets to both bedrooms, gated community with heated pool/spa, fitness center. Excellent location with easy access to the 101 freeway, shops, restaurants, the perfect lock and leave!

28. 2015-03-05
    price $275,000 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Resort style life from this great 2 bedroom/2 bathroom condo, unit has attached two car garage, no one above or below, great room floor plan with gas fireplace, balcony off living area and guest bedroom, walk in closets to both bedrooms, gated community with heated pool/spa, fitness center. Excellent location with easy access to the 101 freeway, shops, restaurants, the perfect lock and leave!

29. 2015-02-20
    listed $289,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Resort style life from this great 2 bedroom/2 bathroom condo, unit has attached two car garage, no one above or below, great room floor plan with gas fireplace, balcony off living area and guest bedroom, walk in closets to both bedrooms, gated community with heated pool/spa, fitness center. Excellent location with easy access to the 101 freeway, shops, restaurants, the perfect lock and leave!

30. 2010-03-30
    soldstatus $204,000 Closed
31. 2010-03-30
    soldstatus $204,000
32. 2010-01-08
    historical
33. 2009-12-21
    listed $200,000
34. 2006-06-16
    soldstatus $390,000
35. 2006-06-15
    soldstatus $390,000
36. 2006-06-01
    historical
37. 2005-09-02
    listed $399,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,846 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,495 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,660
• − Property taxes: −$2,846
• − Insurance: −$4,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,949
• − Management: −$2,949
• − HOA: −$6,588
• − Depreciation: −$15,404
• Taxable loss: −$27,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+32.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $529,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $539,950 ARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $545,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Rental Removed $2,475 ARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $2,475 ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed for Rent $2,575 ARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Rental Removed $2,600 ARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $2,600 ARMLS
• 2024-05-09 Price Changed $2,750 ARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listed for Rent $2,900 ARMLS
• 2015-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-28 Sold (MLS) $255,000 ARMLS
• 2015-03-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2015-03-05 Price Changed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2015-02-20 Listed $289,000 ARMLS
• 2010-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-30 Sold (MLS) $204,000 ARMLS
• 2010-01-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-12-21 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2006-06-16 Sold (MLS) $390,000 ARMLS
• 2006-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-09-02 Listed $399,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,846 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.