19 Bailey Dr

Franklin, NH 03303

$95,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Pending · 208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $680/mo
• Annual: $8,161/yr
• Cap rate: 14.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.68%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#56 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Merrimack Valley School District (town): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #79 of 98 in NH (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Merrimack County in 2024 (28 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merrimack County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $95k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.1% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.