311 Park Ave

Panhandle, TX 79068

$74,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $410/mo
• Annual: $4,920/yr
• Cap rate: 12.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.46%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#21 in TX, #1,354 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Panhandle ISD (rural): math 73% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #27 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Carson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carson County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.