311 Park Ave · Panhandle, TX 79068

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1949

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Panhandle Tx. --Small town living close to Amarillo. Three bedrooms, two baths, full basement, two living areas, den has fireplace, corner lot with an additional storage/studio apt. for potential rental income. Photos have been enhanced and may vary from it's actuality.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Additional storage
• Corner lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• CORNER LOT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• POTENTIAL RENTAL INCOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#21 in TX, #1,354 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Panhandle ISD (rural): math 73% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #27 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Carson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carson County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.46%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $14,084
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $46,327
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79068

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,825/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $431	+0% $410	+5% $389	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $357	+0% $410	+5% $463	+10% $517
Rate	-1.0pp $448	-0.5pp $429	base $410	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $74,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $89,900 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Panhandle Tx. --Small town living close to Amarillo. Three bedrooms, two baths, full basement, two living areas, den has fireplace, corner lot with an additional storage/studio apt. for potential rental income. Photos have been enhanced and may vary from it's actuality.

18. 2026-04-23
    price $99,900 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Panhandle Tx. --Small town living close to Amarillo. Three bedrooms, two baths, full basement, two living areas, den has fireplace, corner lot with an additional storage/studio apt. for potential rental income. Photos have been enhanced and may vary from it's actuality.

19. 2026-03-11
    listed $109,900 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Panhandle Tx. --Small town living close to Amarillo. Three bedrooms, two baths, full basement, two living areas, den has fireplace, corner lot with an additional storage/studio apt. for potential rental income. Photos have been enhanced and may vary from it's actuality.

20. 2024-10-04
    soldstatus
21. 2024-08-23
    price $65,000
22. 2024-08-14
    price $67,000
23. 2024-07-26
    listed $69,000 Active
24. 2024-07-25
    soldstatus
25. 2003-10-20
    soldstatus
26. 1996-10-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$2,825
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $4,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$977
• After-tax cash flow: $3,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panhandle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834230
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,893
• Composite: 58.27/100
• National rank: #1021
• State rank: #27 of 826 in TX

Livability — Panhandle

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panhandle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,124

Population outlook (Carson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,631 people
• By 2030: 5,516 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 5,190 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 5,007 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 4,509 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 3,458 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.2) · D 9.1% · R 90.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -81.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.2 2020: R+79.5 2016: R+80.4 2012: R+77.8 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.95%
• Current HPI: 171.0533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $89,900 PBOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,900 PBOR
• 2026-03-11 Listed $109,900 PBOR
• 2024-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $65,000 PBOR
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $67,000 PBOR
• 2024-07-26 Listed $69,000 PBOR
• 2024-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,825 · +31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.