14016 Burwells Bay Rd

Rushmere, VA 23430

$155,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,133/yr
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#442 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hardy Elementary (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #381 of 1,108 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 49% FRL); Smithfield High (math 66% / reading 80%, grade B+, #129 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,347 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.