14016 Burwells Bay Rd · Rushmere, VA 23430

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1944 1.21 ac lot $123/sqft · 34% below area Est $236k · 34% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level fixer-upper is a rare find, situated on 1.2 acres of potential just six minutes from the beach and less than ten minutes from the heart of Smithfield’s Historic District. Ready for a fresh vision, this property offers a large lot with the flexibility to renovate and expand in a truly incredible location. The home is sold as-is and where-is with no repairs by the seller, representing a unique opportunity to own a lot of this size and make it your own.

Key facts

• 1.21 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1944

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as fixer upper; Approximately 1.21 acres
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage (576 sq ft)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Traditional style; One story; One living level; Crawl foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl exterior siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Hot water heating; Window/wall air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Satellite dish; Screened porch; Sun room; Utility closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#442 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hardy Elementary (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #381 of 1,108 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 49% FRL); Smithfield High (math 66% / reading 80%, grade B+, #129 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,347 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,023
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -34.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,227
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $25,255
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23430

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $980/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Crest Cir Smithfield, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,650	$1.81	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    historical
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $155,000 Active 478-char remark
15. 2026-05-01
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-04-15
    price $155,000
17. 2026-03-27
    price $190,000
18. 2026-03-11
    price $205,000
19. 2026-02-27
    listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$980
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $3,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rushmere

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #18998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rushmere, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,057

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.15%
• Current HPI: 280.3343
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-32.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-06-08 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $155,000 REINMLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $155,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $190,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $205,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $230,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $980 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.