227 54th St NE

Washington, DC 20019

$299,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 2003 · Townhouse · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $400/mo
• Annual: $4,800/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,815/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 5115% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.