1036 Chambray Dr

Troy, TX 76579

$215,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,691/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$393
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,456/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Troy El (math 46% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 399 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Troy — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.