1036 Chambray Dr · Troy, TX 76579

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2023 5,750 sqft lot $170/sqft · 11% below area Est $242k · 11% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom two bath home with available in Troy TX. Conveniently located close to Temple, Belton and Waco. Less than an hour from Austin. Open floor plan, granite countertops and only three years old!

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: I-35 to Goates; Goates to Chambray; property on the left; County: Bell; Country: United States; High geocode confidence
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; HOA fee $240 annually; Association fee includes full use of facilities; HOA managed by Colby Property Mgmt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car carport; Garage has a door opener and faces the front
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 2023; Preowned condition
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5-acre lot; Located in the Cottonwood Creek Phase I subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Troy — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Troy El (math 46% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 399 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,082 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,377
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -11.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1012 Chambray Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	4mo	$213,000	$169	95
1037 Oxford Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+10%)	8mo	$219,000	$156	67
485 Poplin Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+8%)	16mo	$265,000	$193	61
605 Aikman Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	3mo	$195,000	$169	58
409 Blayton St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+11%)	3mo	$236,000	$167	44
636 Oxford Ln	0.17mi	3/21.0	1,413 (+11%)	12mo	$243,500	$172	43
117 University Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	23mo	$244,900	$181	35
113 University Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+14%)	24mo	$249,900	$173	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-47,817
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-58,186
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76579

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,641/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,950

Max offer price $178,840

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Goates Rd Troy, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,765	$1.15	44d	1	0.04mi
206 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	21d	1	0.38mi
205 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	21d	1	0.39mi
204b Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	13d	1	0.40mi
203 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	14d	1	0.41mi
206 Sparrow Cv Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	13d	1	0.42mi
1104 Leah Dr Unit A Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,695	$1.31	13d	1	0.61mi
1005 Leah Dr Unit B Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.67mi
408 Kylar St Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,795	$1.09	44d	1	0.73mi
522 Campus St Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,525	$1.27	44d	1	0.94mi
618 Campus St Unit 1 Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	0.99mi
17307 Old TX 81 Unit C Troy, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	14d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    historical
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $215,000 Active 203-char remark
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 2025-12-10
    historical
20. 2025-06-27
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,641 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,641
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,490
• After-tax cash flow: $-966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,586
• Composite: 38.83/100
• National rank: #4110
• State rank: #257 of 826 in TX

Livability — Troy

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #6921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 5,448
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,448
• Household income: $85,480
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.05%
• Current HPI: 183.9791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $225,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $239,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+131.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,641 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.