153 Collins Rd

Randolph, ME 04330

$193,500B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $330/mo
• Annual: $3,965/yr
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $54,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#104 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 12 (rural): math 86% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #50 of 112 in ME (top 45%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elementary School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #77 of 294 statewide, top 33%, 287 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.