5376 Spruce Dr

Lewiston, MI 49756

$44,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$6
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $394/mo
• Annual: $4,732/yr
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.64%
• DSCR: 2.67
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($858 rent vs $45k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#479 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewiston Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,091 of 1,397 statewide, top 79%, 153 students, 76% FRL); Johannesburglewiston High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 218 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 46% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $45k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.7% in Lewiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.