5376 Spruce Dr · Lewiston, MI 49756

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

0.29 ac lot Est $45k · at est. $6/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate and updated Mobile Home in Moon Lake! Own a piece of up north for little money! This property affords you all of the luxuries associated with Moon Lake, ie. Clubhouse, lake access, in ground pool, etc. Large shed to store your Recreational toys! Mobile has many updates, including furnace! SELLER WILL CONSIDER ALL SERIOUS OFFERS! Call for a showing today!

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• New pex installed
• Large back bedroom

Tags

• MOON LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE BACK BEDROOM
• NEW PEX INSTALLED
• NEW WATER HEATER
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• REFRESHING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $75 (about $6.25/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); On waterfront (Moon Lake); Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 65 x 200

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Oven; Range
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($858 rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.7% in Lewiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#479 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewiston Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,091 of 1,397 statewide, top 79%, 153 students, 76% FRL); Johannesburglewiston High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 218 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 46% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $45k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.64%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $45,360
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5376 Spruce Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	0mo	$45,000	$63	100
3395 Havenwood Dr	0.45mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	15mo	$43,000	$54	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $17,836
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $47,856
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49756

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $279/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $359

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $407	+0% $394	+5% $382	+10% $369
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $360	+0% $394	+5% $428	+10% $462
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $406	base $394	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $44,900 Active
2. 2017-10-13
   soldstatus $16,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Immaculate and updated Mobile Home in Moon Lake! Own a piece of up north for little money! This property affords you all of the luxuries associated with Moon Lake, ie. Clubhouse, lake access, in ground pool, etc. Large shed to store your Recreational toys! Mobile has many updates, including furnace! SELLER WILL CONSIDER ALL SERIOUS OFFERS! Call for a showing today!

3. 2017-03-10
   listed $17,900 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Immaculate and updated Mobile Home in Moon Lake! Own a piece of up north for little money! This property affords you all of the luxuries associated with Moon Lake, ie. Clubhouse, lake access, in ground pool, etc. Large shed to store your Recreational toys! Mobile has many updates, including furnace! SELLER WILL CONSIDER ALL SERIOUS OFFERS! Call for a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $279 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 74.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$279
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $4,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $3,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2619890
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,218
• Composite: 31.36/100
• National rank: #5995
• State rank: #257 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lewiston

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #13556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,965

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 8% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.19%
• Current HPI: 134.8693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+150.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $44,900 WWMLS
• 2017-10-13 Sold (MLS) $16,000 WWMLS
• 2017-03-10 Listed $17,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $279 · -20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.