815 Lakeshore Dr

Heber Springs, AR 72543

$139,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $240/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($240/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#329 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heber Springs Elem. School (math 48% / reading 40%, grade F, #164 of 454 statewide, top 37%, 756 students, 61% FRL); Heber Springs High School (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #37 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 484 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $140k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.1% in Heber Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.