815 Lakeshore Dr · Heber Springs, AR 72543

$139,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1961 0.35 ac lot Est $175k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice home in the middle of Heber Springs close to School. Has chain link fencing in the back yard. Storage building in back yard. Home being sold as is.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Chain link fencing
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• CHAIN LINK FENCING
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.35 acre lot (irregular shape); Property square footage recorded from courthouse/tax records
• Financial info: Financing available: conventional loan or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 3 cars
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service via cooperative
• Home design: Brick and frame exterior; Located on Lakeshore Drive in Heber Springs; Subdivision: Foust
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Fully fenced yard (chain link); Outside storage area; Level, cleared lot in a subdivision; River/lake area nearby; Inside city limits; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing stove; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Ceiling fans; Formica kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($240/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.1% in Heber Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#329 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heber Springs Elem. School (math 48% / reading 40%, grade F, #164 of 454 statewide, top 37%, 756 students, 61% FRL); Heber Springs High School (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #37 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 484 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $140k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,346 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,028
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 Lee St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+2%)	12mo	$220,000	$164	76
507 W North St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+2%)	1mo	$132,000	$98	71
402 Case Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (+6%)	1mo	$158,000	$114	65
402 Hill Crest Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (-5%)	6mo	$167,000	$133	60
706 W Pne	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,210 (-8%)	2mo	$171,000	$141	58
947 Weddingford Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-2%)	23mo	$185,000	$143	54
206 W Sugarloaf St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+12%)	1mo	$105,000	$72	42
1740 W Front	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+15%)	11mo	$236,000	$156	40
417 W Front St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (-9%)	22mo	$140,000	$117	40
1609 Cactus Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-5%)	22mo	$97,000	$78	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,438
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-17,189
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72543

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,002/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 N High St Unit A Heber Springs, AR	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	23d	1	0.84mi
205 Trailwood Dr Heber Springs, AR	3.0	1.0	1025	$880	$0.86	23d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $139,900 Under Contract 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 New Listing 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 152-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $139,900 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,002 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,002 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,002
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$524
• After-tax cash flow: $763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $39,577
• Composite: 41.39/100
• National rank: #3478
• State rank: #19 of 238 in AR

Livability — Heber Springs

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #21491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 12,642

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.45%
• Current HPI: 215.4322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+278.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $139,900 CARMLS
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,002 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.