1661 Pyrenees Ave #70

Stockton, CA 95210

$127,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$455
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-93/mo
• Annual: $-1,122/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (13.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clairmont Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,571 statewide, top 92%, 377 students, 93% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 59% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?