1661 Pyrenees Ave #70 · Stockton, CA 95210

$127,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1985 $227/sqft · 6% below area Est $135k · 6% under $455/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Painted interior, new carpet coming, vacant. Desirable gated CONDO community in Lodi school district, surrounded by waterfalls and trees w/ lots of amenities! Great for investors and 1st time buyers. No occupancy requirments for investors. Lower-level unit w/ washer & dryer hook-ups (must be stacked).

Key facts

• Durable floors
• Brand new dishwasher
• Swimming pool

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL CONDO
• GATED STOCKTON COMMUNITY
• DURABLE FLOORS
• BRAND NEW DISHWASHER
• NEWER HVAC
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (13.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clairmont Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,571 statewide, top 92%, 377 students, 93% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 59% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,488 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,073
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -5.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-20,302
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,388
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$455
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $110,488

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-58	+0% $-93	+5% $-129	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-149	+0% $-93	+5% $-38	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-61	base $-93	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,320	$2.45	45d	1	0.99mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,270	$2.36	25d	1	0.99mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,270	$2.36	13d	1	0.99mi
7620 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,300	$1.57	45d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $455 · $5,460/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2006-02-22
   soldstatus $154,000 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Painted interior, new carpet coming, vacant. Desirable gated CONDO community in Lodi school district, surrounded by waterfalls and trees w/ lots of amenities! Great for investors and 1st time buyers. No occupancy requirments for investors. Lower-level unit w/ washer & dryer hook-ups (must be stacked).

2. 2006-02-22
   soldstatus $154,000

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Painted interior, new carpet coming, vacant. Desirable gated CONDO community in Lodi school district, surrounded by waterfalls and trees w/ lots of amenities! Great for investors and 1st time buyers. No occupancy requirments for investors. Lower-level unit w/ washer & dryer hook-ups (must be stacked).

3. 2006-02-12
   historical 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Painted interior, new carpet coming, vacant. Desirable gated CONDO community in Lodi school district, surrounded by waterfalls and trees w/ lots of amenities! Great for investors and 1st time buyers. No occupancy requirments for investors. Lower-level unit w/ washer & dryer hook-ups (must be stacked).

4. 2005-09-17
   listed $159,900 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Painted interior, new carpet coming, vacant. Desirable gated CONDO community in Lodi school district, surrounded by waterfalls and trees w/ lots of amenities! Great for investors and 1st time buyers. No occupancy requirments for investors. Lower-level unit w/ washer & dryer hook-ups (must be stacked).

5. 1985-12-16
   soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 189.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − HOA: −$5,460
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$3,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $-378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+238.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2006-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-22 Sold (MLS) $154,000 MLSListings
• 2006-02-12 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-09-17 Listed $159,900 MLSListings
• 1985-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.