407 Morgan St

Concord, IL 62631

$65,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $810/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $218/mo
• Annual: $2,612/yr
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.35%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($810 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $919 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,124 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Triopia CUSD 27 (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #353 of 919 in IL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $65k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.