407 Morgan St · Concord, IL 62631

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1930 9,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Adorable 1 bed, 1 bath home located in a quiet Concord setting- featuring a garage that truly steals the show! Enjoy an open-concept feel with a combined living and dining area, perfect for everyday living. The spacious kitchen and convenient in-closet laundry. The updated bathroom includes a walk-in shower, new vanity, and commode. Major updates include a new roof in 2022 on both the home and the shed. The detached shed is a standout feature with a concrete floor and electricity- ideal for a workshop, hobby space, or storage for all your toys. A unique property with big functionality in a cozy footprint!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Walk-in shower
• In-closet laundry

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• IN-CLOSET LAUNDRY
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW ROOF
• DETACHED SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage with 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1930; Single-story sections with additional upper, lower and basement levels
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Outbuilding on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (Main level) — approx. 9' x 12', vinyl flooring, egress window
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring in primary living spaces
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Other heating components; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Dryer, Washer, Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($810 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,124 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Triopia CUSD 27 (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #353 of 919 in IL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $919 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $65k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.35%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $7,757
• Equity at exit: $14,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $28,662
• Equity at exit: $14,056

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62631

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $236	+0% $218	+5% $199	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $186	+0% $218	+5% $250	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $234	base $218	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $65,000 Active
18. 2021-08-06
    historical
19. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus $20,000
20. 2020-01-16
    listed $20,000
21. 2018-04-11
    soldstatus $14,000
22. 2018-03-17
    listed $14,000
23. 2013-05-15
    soldstatus $12,000
24. 2013-03-29
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$35/mo · 64.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$777
• − Management: −$777
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$398
• After-tax cash flow: $2,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Triopia CUSD 27
• NCES district ID: 1710830
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,870
• Composite: 35.23/100
• National rank: #9852
• State rank: #353 of 919 in IL

Livability — Concord

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1124
• US rank: #21220

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, IL
• Population (ZIP): 239

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Russian 6%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.41%
• Current HPI: 95.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+333.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $65,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-17 Sold (MLS) $20,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-16 Listed $20,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) $14,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-17 Listed $14,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-15 Sold (MLS) $12,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-29 Listed $15,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $647 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.