21601 Long Hill Dr

Leander, TX 78641

$280,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,292/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (34.3% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in TX, #940 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Leander ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #100 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: C C Mason El (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 636 students, 23% FRL); Running Brushy Middle (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 1,052 students, 29% FRL); Leander H S (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,218 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $280k implies a 1008% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.2% in Leander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.