21601 Long Hill Dr · Leander, TX 78641

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1998 1.00 ac lot $205/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a quiet Hill Country subdivision, this peaceful retreat sits on a full acre of land and offers wide-open skies, mature trees, and a relaxing canyon view you'll never get tired of. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this property delivers the calm of country living just 10 miles from Cedar Park, and with no HOA, the possibilities are yours. The home itself is a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, thoughtfully set on a pier and beam foundation and fully strapped down. Both bedrooms are private suites, each with its own bathroom, making for a comfortable setup whether you're hosting friends or simply like a bit of space and privacy. The layout feels open and welcoming, with the kitchen, dining, and living areas connected in the heart of the home. Outside, a covered front porch and side deck with stairs provide a great place to enjoy morning coffee, stargazing at night, or just listening to the breeze through the trees. Behind the scenes, the home is already equipped with Starlink high-speed internet, so working remotely or streaming your favorite shows is easy and dependable. A septic system is in place, and the gravel driveway makes access simple with plenty of space for parking. If you've been craving a slower pace, space to breathe, and a touch of nature, without being too far from town, this one might just check all the boxes.

Key facts

• Relaxing canyon view
• Private suites
• Full acre of land

Tags

• FULL ACRE OF LAND
• MATURE TREES
• RELAXING CANYON VIEW
• NO HOA
• PIER AND BEAM FOUNDATION
• PRIVATE SUITES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.2% in Leander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in TX, #940 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Leander ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #100 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: C C Mason El (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 636 students, 23% FRL); Running Brushy Middle (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 1,052 students, 29% FRL); Leander H S (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,218 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $280k implies a 1008% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,031 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $639,349
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -56.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21702 Highclimb Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+15%)	4mo	$225,000	$143	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-68,339
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-103,256
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78641

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1501
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,718/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $231,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-195	+0% $-274	+5% $-354	+10% $-433
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-347	+0% $-274	+5% $-202	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-203	base $-274	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $280,000 New 1401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1401 chars)

    Tucked away in a quiet Hill Country subdivision, this peaceful retreat sits on a full acre of land and offers wide-open skies, mature trees, and a relaxing canyon view you'll never get tired of. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this property delivers the calm of country living just 10 miles from Cedar Park, and with no HOA, the possibilities are yours. The home itself is a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, thoughtfully set on a pier and beam foundation and fully strapped down. Both bedrooms are private suites, each with its own bathroom, making for a comfortable setup whether you're hosting friends or simply like a bit of space and privacy. The layout feels open and welcoming, with the kitchen, dining, and living areas connected in the heart of the home. Outside, a covered front porch and side deck with stairs provide a great place to enjoy morning coffee, stargazing at night, or just listening to the breeze through the trees. Behind the scenes, the home is already equipped with Starlink high-speed internet, so working remotely or streaming your favorite shows is easy and dependable. A septic system is in place, and the gravel driveway makes access simple with plenty of space for parking. If you've been craving a slower pace, space to breathe, and a touch of nature, without being too far from town, this one might just check all the boxes.

16. 2026-01-14
    historical
17. 2025-07-29
    listed $280,000 New
18. 1998-07-22
    soldstatus
19. 1994-04-11
    soldstatus $25,270

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,718 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,406/yr (+$284/mo · 198.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,718
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leander ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827030
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,527
• Composite: 47.73/100
• National rank: #2238
• State rank: #100 of 826 in TX

Livability — Leander

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #940

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 99,865
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 99,865
• Household income: $135,024
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.33%
• Current HPI: 203.2689
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1008.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $280,000 LERA
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-29 Listed $280,000 LERA
• 1998-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $25,270 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,718 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.