28629 James St

Garden City, MI 48135

$220,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,689/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,922/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#53 in MI, #1,047 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-.
• Garden City Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #365 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.