77 Appletree Dr

Saugerties South, NY 12477

$244,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $294/mo
• Annual: $3,524/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $68,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#797 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $245k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.