77 Appletree Dr · Saugerties South, NY 12477

$244,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot Est $347k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks in Barclay Heights, Saugerties! This bi-level fixer-upper sits on a generously sized yard backing up to peaceful woods--offering privacy, potential, and a beautiful natural setting. The home needs work and plenty of elbow grease, but the bones and location make it a standout project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. With the right vision, this property can truly shine. Being sold as-is--bring your ideas and make it your own

Key facts

• Peaceful woods
• Natural setting
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• PEACEFUL WOODS
• NATURAL SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Hardwood; Linoleum; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range; Hardwood flooring; Linoleum flooring; Additional flooring types; Full and partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#797 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $245k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $237,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,130
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Appletree Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,305 (0%)	1mo	$250,900	$192	99
27 Appletree Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,414 (+8%)	3mo	$360,000	$255	76
2 Spaulding Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-2%)	3mo	$325,000	$254	67
11 Mountain View Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-6%)	0mo	$369,000	$300	66
19 Edgewood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+12%)	10mo	$455,000	$312	65
21 Edith Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,483 (+14%)	1mo	$395,000	$266	64
3 Cedar Ln	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,219 (-7%)	2mo	$355,000	$291	62
15 Simmons Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,402 (+7%)	10mo	$355,000	$253	58
44 Lamb Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,183 (-9%)	4mo	$343,500	$290	56
5 Simmons Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-14%)	0mo	$389,000	$347	49
14 & 16 Underwood St	0.75mi	4/— (+1)	1,400 (+7%)	6mo	$107,000	$76	43
99 W Bridge St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-12%)	4mo	$220,000	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-20,822
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,596
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12477

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$496 /mo · $5,952/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Montross St Unit A Saugerties, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	23d	1	0.78mi
42 Russell St Saugerties, NY	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,500	$1.78	23d	1	0.93mi
1 Trinity Ct Saugerties, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,970	$2.93	13d	6	1.36mi
1 Trinity Ct Saugerties, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,800	$2.83	43d	13	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $244,900 Active
4. 2002-02-20
   soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,952 · $496/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,952 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$5,952
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,644
• − Management: −$2,644
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saugerties Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,897
• Composite: 41.3/100
• National rank: #3515
• State rank: #419 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saugerties South

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #797
• US rank: #15405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saugerties South, NY
• County: Ulster County · 56,183 people
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $80,861
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.47%
• Current HPI: 327.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+260.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $244,900 HVCRMLS
• 2002-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,952 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.