22533 Winfield Rd

Novi, MI 48375 4475

$399,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$474
• HOA: −$27
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-323/mo
• Annual: $-3,873/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (28.0% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $288k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in MI, #377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Novi Community School District (urban): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #7 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $400k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Novi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.