22533 Winfield Rd · Novi, MI 48375 4475

$399,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 10,018 sqft lot Est $391k · at est. $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the highly sought-after Village Oaks/Heathwyke subdivision, this beautifully maintained home offers an ideal location near I-275, I-696, I-96, Twelve Oaks Mall, and award-winning Novi Schools. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a partially finished basement with additional office/flex space, this home provides plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious eat-in kitchen overlooks the backyard and features a pantry and quartz countertops (2021). The inviting family room showcases elegant wainscoting and a natural wood-burning fireplace, while a separate living and dining area is perfect for gatherings and holiday celebrations. Engineered hardwood flooring (20

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private bath
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NATURAL WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• ENGINEERED HARDWOOD FLOORING
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association fee ($325 yearly); Community clubhouse included

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas; Gas water heater; Public sewer (assumed with public water)
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1972; Basement
• Construction: Basement foundation; Partially finished lower level
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Deck; Inground pool; Lawn sprinkler; Shared waterfront on Village Oaks; Paved street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: 11 x 11 kitchen; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level) — 11 x 11; Bedroom 2 (Second level) — 11 x 12; Bedroom 3 (Second level) — 13 (width listed); Bedroom 4 (Second level) — 11 x 14; Total of 9 rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 lavatory (powder room)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Furnished; Fireplace in family room (natural fireplace); Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement — 5 x 6; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Novi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in MI, #377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Novi Community School District (urban): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #7 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $400k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $288,076 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22530 Sheridan Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,734 (+0%)	7mo	$360,000	$208	87
21964 Sunrise Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,848 (+7%)	4mo	$465,000	$252	62
23316 Cranbrooke Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (+1%)	3mo	$365,400	$209	61
40661 Oakwood Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,484 (-14%)	4mo	$412,000	$278	61
40409 Oak Tree Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (+1%)	12mo	$455,000	$261	55
40528 Ladene Ln	0.28mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,864 (+8%)	15mo	$460,000	$247	52
23533 Nilan Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,700 (-2%)	9mo	$375,000	$221	50
23660 Maude Lea St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-8%)	5mo	$390,000	$246	45
41088 Malott Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-6%)	11mo	$328,250	$203	40
23528 Londonderry	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,900 (+10%)	10mo	$375,000	$197	37
40521 Franklin Mill St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,964 (+14%)	13mo	$438,000	$223	34
40631 Rockhill Ln	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,574 (-9%)	15mo	$355,000	$226	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $27,560
• Equity at exit: $179,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $126,903
• Equity at exit: $277,112

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48375 4475

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,694/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,289

Max offer price $342,887

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20828 W Glen Haven Cir Northville, MI	3.0	2.5	1863	$2,000	$1.07	1d	1	1.25mi
43355 Cliffside Ct Novi, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1690	$3,845	$2.28	1d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,694 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,926 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,232/yr (+$103/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,694
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,766
• − Management: −$2,766
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$11,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novi Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2626130
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $90,023
• Composite: 65.28/100
• National rank: #489
• State rank: #7 of 540 in MI

Livability — Novi

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #377

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novi, MI

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+190.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $399,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,694 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.