2012 Tobacco Rd

Nathalie, VA 24577

$75,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $978/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $328/mo
• Annual: $3,930/yr
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.71%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $75k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#551 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Halifax County Public School District (town): math 29% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #116 of 131 in VA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sydnor Jennings Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 192 students, 92% FRL); Halifax County Middle (math 27% / reading 60%, grade D, #285 of 342 statewide, top 84%, 925 students, 92% FRL); Halifax County High (math 40% / reading 69%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,397 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 58% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Halifax County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Halifax County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.