2012 Tobacco Rd · Nathalie, VA 24577

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1940 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living at 2012 Tobacco Road in Nathalie, VA. Situated on approximately half an acre, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers scenic rural views, a paved driveway, and two outbuildings for additional storage or workshop space. The property provides a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their own country retreat. While the home requires some repairs and updates, its desirable rural setting and existing improvements offer plenty of potential. Conveniently located in a quiet countryside setting, this property is being sold as-is and is ready for its next chapter!

Key facts

• Scenic rural views
• Paved driveway
• Two outbuildings

Tags

• SCENIC RURAL VIEWS
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• QUIET COUNTRYSIDE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.5 acre (21,780 sq ft); Zoned Ag

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Asphalt parking surface
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property type
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Combination foundation; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,077 (square feet)
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Storage structure; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Dishwasher; Walk-out, partial, unfinished basement; Has basement; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#551 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Halifax County Public School District (town): math 29% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #116 of 131 in VA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sydnor Jennings Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 192 students, 92% FRL); Halifax County Middle (math 27% / reading 60%, grade D, #285 of 342 statewide, top 84%, 925 students, 92% FRL); Halifax County High (math 40% / reading 69%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,397 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 58% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Halifax County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Halifax County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.71%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $45,229
• Equity at exit: $50,069

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $116,023
• Equity at exit: $93,433

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24577

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $248/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $75,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 620-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $248 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 148.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$248
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$685
• After-tax cash flow: $3,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Halifax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -51.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,137
• Composite: 36.36/100
• National rank: #4687
• State rank: #116 of 131 in VA

Livability — Nathalie

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #25884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,701

Population outlook (Halifax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,892 people
• By 2030: 31,438 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 28,350 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 25,553 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 20,217 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 14,645 · -55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 37% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Halifax

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 39.1% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Current HPI: 208.5645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $75,000 SPLLAR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.